气候变化对东北大西洋渔获物组成、多样性和营养级的影响     

陈爽  陈新军 《海洋学报》2020,42(10):100-109

东北大西洋是世界上重要的捕捞海域，气候变化对该海域捕捞产生了重要的影响。本文基于联合国粮农组织所提供的1982?2016年东北大西洋渔获产量数据，对该海域渔获物组成、多样性、平均营养级及主成分变化特征进行时间序列上的分析，并结合东北大西洋海域气候、环境因子，应用广义可加模型探究渔获物组成与气候变化之间的关系。结果显示:渔获物多样性的变化总体上呈下降趋势，2002?2010年间处于较低水平；平均营养级在2002年之前呈平缓下降的趋势，2002年之后开始波动上升，相关性分析表明这两个指标与海域环境因子的变化较为相关。对渔获物组成进行主成分分析显示，第一主成份变化的方差解释率达到35.3%，且与海域气候、环境因素有较高的相关性，第一主成分变化能够较好地表征气候影响下渔获物组成变化的情况。广义可加模型分析结果显示，渔获物组成变化的影响因素按解释率由高到低分别为:海表温度、海平面高度、盐度、海冰和北大西洋涛动指数。该研究有助于认识气候变化对海洋渔业资源及其结构组成的影响。  相似文献   

早渐新世钙质超微化石演变与营养盐及二氧化碳关系     

马瑞罡  杨海长  金晓波  赵钊  张功成  刘传联 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(10):70-80

南海北部早渐新世发生明显的营养供给和二氧化碳浓度的变化，相关地质记录为研究颗石藻的生理机制提供了理想的自然实验室。在本研究中，我们建立了一个新的颗石藻群落演化的指标，定义为E*比值。该比值由富营养属种和中等-贫营养属种的相对丰度计算而得（E^*=e/(e+c)×100，e代表富营养属种，c代表中等-贫营养属种）。其中富营养属种包括小Reticulofenestra， Reticulofenestra lockeri组，Reticulofenestra bisecta组和Coccolithus pelagicus组，而中等-贫营养属种包括Cyclicargolithus spp.。E^*指标与早渐新世营养盐指标具有较强的相关性，但在不同二氧化碳浓度的条件下表现不同的公变趋势。将群落组合与已发表的二氧化碳浓度数据对比，我们提出颗石藻可能在二氧化碳持续降低的环境下改变其对碳源和营养盐的利用方式，指示颗石藻的碳浓缩机制可能开始于早渐新世。  相似文献   

基于大数据分析下的气候模型     

张宸豪  冯曦  冯卫兵  刘涛  丁坤 《海洋科学》2020,44(10):1-11

为研究全球变暖与极寒天气间的关系，对加拿大13个省代表性测站10年的观测数据进行时空变化趋势分析，采用经验正交函数（EOF）寻找海洋表面温度历史数据的变化规律。另外利用BP神经网络建立了年平均温度、日降水量与地球吸热、散热、海表面温度、当地纬度间的关系，预测未来25年气候的变化，并建立了“极寒天气”与气候变化的关系模型。研究表明：高纬度地区温度、降水量普遍较低，同经度地区的温度差异较小且降水量变化不大；加拿大地区温度呈周期性变化，符合北半球的季节变化特征；北大西洋的东部与其他海洋的温度是反相关的，西太平洋南北回归线附近的海洋表面温度升高；“极寒天气”出现频率与气候变化有一定关系，局地极寒现象与全球变暖的大趋势并不矛盾。本研究为人们认识和理解“全球变暖”提供了一个新的思路。  相似文献   

孟加拉湾及其毗邻海域中尺度涡旋活动的冬、夏季差异          下载免费PDF全文

黄挺  周锋  田娣  张家赢 《海洋学研究》2020,38(3):21-30

基于1993—2017年从卫星高度计资料中识别出来的中尺度涡轨迹数据集,对冬、夏季孟加拉湾涡旋的源地和性质进行了研究。研究表明孟加拉湾西部、安达曼海和孟加拉湾通往赤道的出口处的中尺度涡旋活动呈现显著的季节性差异。安达曼海在冬、夏季从北往南中尺度涡旋分别以“反气旋涡-气旋涡-反气旋涡”和“气旋涡-反气旋涡-气旋涡”的格局分布。不同源区涡旋的季节性生长过程有明显差异。孟加拉湾西部的涡旋在夏季生长迅速但消散缓慢,斯里兰卡冷涡生长缓慢但消散迅速。不同源区涡旋半径和振幅大小有不同的特征。孟加拉湾西部,无论冬、夏季,反气旋涡的振幅、半径都比气旋涡大;夏季季风漂流区,气旋涡半径比反气旋涡小但是振幅比反气旋涡大;安达曼海内无论冬、夏季都是最北侧聚集区涡旋的半径和振幅最大。孟加拉湾内生命史为30~40 d的涡旋数量最多,生命史在100 d以上的涡旋主要分布在孟加拉湾西部。  相似文献   

2016—2017年夏季舟山近岸海域富营养化程度与浮游植物多样性          下载免费PDF全文

金敬林  蔡丽萍  余健涛 《海洋开发与管理》2020,37(1):51-55

文章根据2016-2017年夏季的调查资料,对2016-2017年夏季舟山近岸海域富营养化状态及浮游植物进行分析。结果表明:2016-2017年夏季舟山近岸海域富营养化程度较高,且由近岸至外海递减;浮游植物群落主要由硅藻和甲藻组成,其密度、多样性指数均由近岸至外海递增;受其他因素影响,富营养化程度与浮游植物多样性关系的规律性不显著。  相似文献   

Modelling tropical cyclone risks for present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques     

Muhammad Al-Amin Hoque  Stuart Phinn  Chris Roelfsema  Iraphne Childs 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2018,11(3):246-263

Tropical cyclones and their devastating impacts are of great concern to coastal communities globally. An appropriate approach integrating climate change scenarios at local scales is essential for producing detailed risk models to support cyclone mitigation measures. This study developed a simple cyclone risk-modelling approach under present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques at local scales, and tested using a case study in Sarankhola Upazila from coastal Bangladesh. Linear storm-surge models were developed up to 100-year return periods. A local sea level rise scenario of 0.34?m for the year 2050 was integrated with surge models to assess the climate change impact. The resultant storm-surge models were used in the risk-modelling procedures. The developed risk models successfully identified the spatial extent and levels of risk that match with actual extent and levels within an acceptable limit of deviation. The result showed that cyclone risk areas increased with the increase of return period. The study also revealed that climate change scenario intensified the cyclone risk area by 5–10% in every return period. The findings indicate this approach has the potential to model cyclone risk in other similar coastal environments for developing mitigation plans and strategies.  相似文献   

Modelling coastal land use change by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into cellular automata models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yongjiu Feng  Qianqian Yang  Zhonghua Hong  Li Cui 《国际地球制图》2018,33(5):470-488

This paper presents a spatial autoregressive (SAR) method-based cellular automata (termed SAR-CA) model to simulate coastal land use change, by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into transition rules. The model captures the spatial relationships between explained and explanatory variables and then integrates them into CA transition rules. A conventional CA model (LogCA) based on logistic regression (LR) was studied as a comparison. These two CA models were applied to simulate urban land use change of coastal regions in Ningbo of China from 2000 to 2015. Compared to the LR method, the SAR model yielded smaller accumulated residuals that showed a random distribution in fitting the CA transition rules. The better-fitting SAR model performed well in simulating urban land use change and scored an overall accuracy of 85.3%, improving on the LogCA model by 3.6%. Landscape metrics showed that the pattern generated by the SAR-CA model has less difference with the observed pattern.  相似文献   

Soil salinity and vegetation cover change detection from multi-temporal remotely sensed imagery in Al Hassa Oasis in Saudi Arabia     

Amal Allbed  Lalit Kumar  Priyakant Sinha 《国际地球制图》2018,33(8):830-846

Detecting soil salinity changes and its impact on vegetation cover are necessary to understand the relationships between these changes in vegetation cover. This study aims to determine the changes in soil salinity and vegetation cover in Al Hassa Oasis over the past 28 years and investigates whether the salinity change causing the change in vegetation cover. Landsat time series data of years 1985, 2000 and 2013 were used to generate Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil Salinity Index (SI) images, which were then used in image differencing to identify vegetation and salinity change/no-change for two periods. Soil salinity during 2000–2013 exhibits much higher increase compared to 1985–2000, while the vegetation cover declined to 6.31% for the same period. Additionally, highly significant (p < 0.0001) negative relationships found between the NDVI and SI differencing images, confirmed the potential long-term linkage between the changes in soil salinity and vegetation cover.  相似文献   

Subsidence in the Kathmandu Basin,before and after the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake,Nepal Revealed from Small Baseline Subset-DInSAR Analysis     

Suresh Krishnan P.V.  Jungkyo Jung 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2018,55(4):604-621

Land subsidence in densely urbanized areas is a global problem that is primarily caused by excessive groundwater withdrawal. The Kathmandu Basin is one such area where subsidence due to groundwater depletion has been a major problem in recent years. Moreover, on 25 April 2015, this basin experienced large crustal movements caused by the Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8). Consequently, the effects of earthquake-induced deformation could affect the temporal and spatial nature of anthropogenic subsidence in the basin. However, this effect has not yet been fully studied. In this paper, we applied the SBAS-DInSAR technique to estimate the spatiotemporal displacement of land subsidence in the Kathmandu Basin before and after the Gorkha earthquake, using 16 ALOS-1 Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) images during the pre-seismic period and 26 Sentinel-1 A/B SAR images during the pre- and post-seismic periods. The results showed that the mean subsidence rate in the central part of the basin was about ?8.2 cm/year before the earthquake. The spatial extents of the subsiding areas were well-correlated with the spatial distributions of the compressible clay layers in the basin. We infer from time-series InSAR analysis that subsidence in the Kathmandu basin could be associated with fluvio-lacustrine (clay) deposits and local hydrogeological conditions. However, after the mainshock, the subsidence rate significantly increased to ?15 and ?12 cm/year during early post-seismic (108 days) and post-seismic (2015–2016) period, respectively. Based on a spatial analysis of the subsidence rate map, the entire basin uplifted during the co-seismic period has started to subside and become stable during the early-post-seismic period. This is because of the elastic rebound of co-seismic deformation. However, interestingly, the localized areas show increased subsidence rates during both the early-post- and post-seismic periods. Therefore, we believe that the large co-seismic deformation experienced in this basin might induce the local subsidence to increase in rate, caused by oscillations of the water table level in the clay layer.  相似文献   

Dynamic land use change simulation using cellular automata with spatially nonstationary transition rules   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Yongjiu Feng  Xiaohua Tong 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2018,55(5):678-698

The dynamic relationships between land use change and its driving forces vary spatially and can be identified by geographically weighted regression (GWR). We present a novel cellular automata (GWR-CA) model that incorporates GWR-derived spatially varying relationships to simulate land use change. Our GWR-CA model is characterized by spatially nonstationary transition rules that fully address local interactions in land use change. More importantly, each driving factor in our GWR model contains effects that both promote and resist land use change. We applied GWR-CA to simulate rapid land use change in Suzhou City on the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2015. The GWR coefficients were visualized to highlight their spatial patterns and local variation, which are closely associated with their effects on land use change. The transition rules indicate low land conversion potential in the city’s center and outer suburbs, but higher land conversion potential in the inner near suburbs along the belt expressway. Residual statistics show that GWR fits the input data better than logistic regression (LR). Compared with an LR-based CA model, GWR-CA improves overall accuracy by 4.1% and captures 5.5% more urban growth, suggesting that GWR-CA may be superior in modeling land use change. Our results demonstrate that the GWR-CA model is effective in capturing spatially varying land transition rules to produce more realistic results, and is suitable for simulating land use change and urban expansion in rapidly urbanizing regions.  相似文献